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We often look to the number of firearm background checks to estimate gun sales in the U.S. And shows that number jumped in 2019. But the real story behind those numbers is more complicated.

Every time someone buys a gun from a federally licensed firearms dealer their name is run through the FBI鈥檚 National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS).

And , 2019 could be a record year for the number of those checks.

But the uptick in background checks : States are now running more background checks for things like concealed weapons permits, according to Jurgen Brauer.

Brauer is the founder of Small Arms Analytics, which tracks the gun industry.

鈥淜entucky for instance, checks about 380,000 permit holders,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t does not mean that every one of these [permit holders], every month, goes out to buy a new firearm.鈥�

There were approximately . That鈥檚 roughly 2 million more than in 2018.

But Brauer says the actual jump in gun sales is closer to Analysts, he says, are having to adjust their methods as the gap between background checks and actual sales increases.

鈥淭he FBI numbers are inflated and need to be deflated essentially to estimate the approximate number of actual sales,鈥� he said.

Nonetheless, Brauer says the 2019 background check total reflect an upward trend analysis have noted in recent years, following a slump in the wake of President Donald Trump鈥檚 election.

And Brauer says sales are likely to increase as we get closer to the 2020 presidential election, when gun owners are likely to be more concerned about the potential for a different administration and new gun regulations.

is a public media reporting project on the role of guns in American life.

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